Climate change represents not only the principal moral and existential crisis of our time, but is also a rare fortuitous challenge in which opportunities for action are just as great as the costs of inaction.  As the science of human induced climate change is reaching a point of scientific consensus, the discussion has rightly turned to the scale and nature of the policies of mitigation and adaptation.

There are four interrelated costs of inaction on climate change:  human, economic, ecological and moral. Together, they form an compelling argument for unprecedented policy action to curb carbon emissions.

First, there are clear human costs to rising average temperatures.  Unlike other policy related challenges, climate change is already and will continue to fundamentally alter the way in which we live on the earth.  Its impact is grim. The Global Humanitarian Forum argues that a gradual rise in temperature has already displaced 26 million people, and kills about 315,000 people a year through hunger, sickness and weather disasters, with the annual death toll expected to rise to half a million by 2030.   The large majority of these deaths relate to environmental deterioration including a reduction in farm land, creeping deserts and sea-level rise.

Second, the economic costs of climate change are significant.  Nicholas Stern argues that doing nothing to mitigate carbon emissions will result in a 5%-20% loss of world GDP due to rising temperatures.  Others argue that global warming already causes over $125 billion in annual economic loses worldwide.

Third, a warming planet will be changed ecologically, with the primary cost being to species range and the threat of extinction.  Already there has been a significant effect on the locations in which the species can survive and reproduce due to climate change.  If we see moderate warming in the range of 3.6 to 5.4°F, it is estimated that 20-30 percent of studied species risk extinction.

Finally there is a moral cost to inaction, for the costs of climate change will be disproportionately borne by those living in the developing world. Nicholas Stern estimates that 90% of the economic losses and casualties will be borne in the developing world while the world’s 50 least developed countries contribute only 1% of global emissions.  We are also morally responsible because we are placing the burden of current emission on future generations: the real impact of our actions will not be felt by us, but by our children and grandchildren.

In inverse of the debate over the costs inaction on climate emissions, are the potential benefits of mitigation.  Climate change is indeed a rare policy challenge where we can do well out of doing good.

The first potential benefit is economic transformation.  As a pure financial investment, mitigation makes sense - it is estimated that if we invest 1% of our GDP in mitigation now, will curb a 5-20% future loss in GDP directly related to warmer average temperatures.  Solving the climate crisis in a smart way also has the potential to unleash enormous economic opportunity.  Two of the principle policy levers for mitigating emissions are dramatically increasing energy efficiency, and transferring our energy consumption from carbon to renewables.  If done with foresight, investment in renewables and sustainable energy technology will create an entire new green economy that will spread next generation technology through all sectors of the economy.  While significant government funding is required to stimulate this industrial shift, if carbon is costed appropriately, entrepreneurial opportunity for the private sector will be huge. 

Second, there is a humanitarian opportunity in climate change action.  We know who will be most effected by rising temperatures, and the humanitarian community has the skills and capabilities to meet many of the challenges that will increasingly effect the world’s most vulnerable.  This will require a rethinking of humanitarian assistance to strengthen local capacity to cope with the future impact of climate disasters.

It is worth keeping in mind that despite years of inadequate responses from governments around the world, climate change mitigation remains possible. It will require a significant restructuring of our economy and our energy systems, but such shifts are both possible given current technology, and will have tremendous long term benefits.

Not only is there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that inaction will lead to catastrophic climate change, and widespread human, ecological and economic damage, but as a matter of justice and morality, our inaction will continue to place the human costs of our carbon emissions on those in other regions and in future generations, who have not seen any of the benefits.

It is time that we finally adequately addressed the responsibility and opportunity in mitigating climate change.

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